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RESEARCHBRIEF

FROM THE CENTER FOR MEDIA RESEARCH

Tuesday, January 19, 2010

Mark Nesbitt, President, TNS Media Intelligence,  "... although 'shopper marketing' tactics are still evolving, FSIs have clearly emerged as a key component of manufacturer and retailer aligned promotion programs... manufacturers are using corporate scale FSI coupon events... to break through the promotion clutter... "

During 2009, more than $385 billion in consumer incentives were delivered via FSI coupons, up 15.0% from 2008.  However, Average Expiration (Fuse) remained below ten weeks with a decrease to 9.3 weeks, down 3.9% versus a year ago.  Manufacturers are delivering more offers of greater value to the consumer, but are managing their financial exposure by reducing the length of time that these offers are available in the market.    

The Consumer Packaged Goods (CPG) sector remained as the largest user of FSI pages with a 71.5% share, followed by Direct Response, which includes general advertis ing activity, and Franchise, comprised of restaurants, portrait studios, and other businesses. 

Retailer promotion pages increased 37.7% to more than 9.0 billion pages in 2009.  Target continued to lead with more than 1.8 billion pages, up 43.9% versus 2008.  Dollar General increased 386.2% to more than 885 million pages to rank third during 2009.  These trends reflect the overall growth of retailer promo tion within traditional FSI vehicles.

During 2009, there were 388 new products that delivered FSI coupons across 788 event dates as part of their introduction, averaging 2.0 event dates per new product.  This activity is up from 334 new products, 635 event dates, and 1.9 event dates per new product during 2008. 

In 2009, Non-Food categories distributed more than 160.9 billion coupons, up 5.3% versus a year ago, driven by the 7.7% increase within the Personal Care area.  Food cate gories distributed 111.6 billion coupons, representing an increase of 12.4%, led by the 7.8% increase for the Dry Grocery area. 

Additionally, manufacturers are increasing the value of the offers being delivered to consumers in both the Non-Food and Food segments.  Weighted average face value for Non-Food increased 7.4% to $1.73 and was combined with a 0.8 point decrease in multiple purchase requirements resulting in weighted average face value per unit increasing 8.1% to $1.54. These changes appear to be a response to economic pressures to increase the perceived consumer value of each offer relative to retail price, concludes the report.

The top 10 product types based on Coupons Dropped accounted for 34.8% of all FSI coupon activity during 2009.   Combination/Personal products (comprised of Perso nal Care brands which are promoted across multiple individual Personal Care categories) ranked first and increased 7.5% to distribute more than 13.3 billion coupons.

For additional information about this study, please visit Tnsmi-Marx here.

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RESEARCHBRIEF

FROM THE CENTER FOR MEDIA RESEARCH

Monday, January 11, 2010

In addition to broad changes in vacation spending, nearly 3 out of 10 Americans plan to spend less on airline flights specifically in 2010 than they did in 2009, while 16% say they will spend more, and about half say they will spend about the same. The same pattern is seen for hotel stays, with 30% planning to spend less and 16% planning to spend more.

According to the poll, there is little variation in Americans' 2010 travel spending intentions according to household income. All income groups, ranging from those earning $75,000 or more, to those earning less than $30,000, plan to spend less rather than more in each travel area.

Some meaningful differences are evident by age, with young adults expressing the greatest likelihood of increasing their travel expenditures. This is seen most clearly when asked about spending on vacations in general, as this is the one area where a higher percentage of those aged 18 to 34 plan to spend more rather than less (30% vs. 25%). By contrast, adults 35 to 54 and 55 and older are more likely to say they will spend l ess in each area, not more.

The spending intentions of young adults are a bit less robust relative to airline travel and hotel stays than they are for vacations. Roughly equal percentages plan to spend more rather than less on airline travel, while a slightly higher percentage plan to spend less rather than more on hotel stays. Still, the spending intentions of young adults are greater than those of older adults in all three areas.

The report concludes by noting that it may be no surprise that when Americans are asked to look ahead to their vacation, airline ticket, and hotel spending next year, they are at least slightly more likely to say they will be spending less than they spent this year rather than more.

However, consumer attitudes about their overall travel spending in 2010 may differ from how they ultimately behave. Indeed, the latest government report on travel and tourism reports a significant rebound in U.S. travel spending in the third quarter of 2009 compared to the same period a ye ar ago, reflecting increases in both business and leisure travel. This coincides with an increase in the U.S. gross domestic product more generally and is likely to extend through the fourth quarter. If so, the current data may simply, but importantly, indicate that Americans remain vigilant about their spending and therefore that airlines, hotels, and resorts will have to continue pushing major discounts and package deals in order to attract consumers' travel dollars.

Results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error in this study is ±4 percentage points, says Gallup.

Please visit Gallup here for additional information.

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RESEARCHBRIEF

FROM THE CENTER FOR MEDIA RESEARCH

Tuesday, January 5, 2010

The Consumer Confidence Survey, recently released by The Conference Board and TNS, based on a representative sample of 5,000 U.S. households, rose again in December. The Index now stands at 52.9 (1985=100), up from 50.6 in November. The Expectations Index increased to 75.6 from 70.3 last month. The Present Situation Index, however, declined to 18.8 from 21.2 in November.

Lynn Franco, Director of The Conference Board Consumer Research Center, says that "... expectations for the short-term future increased to the highest level in two years... The Present Situation Index, however... remains at a 26-year low... A more optimistic outlook for business and labor market conditions was the driving force behind the increase in the Expectations Index... however, consumers remain rather pessimistic about their short-term (income) prospects and this will likely continue to play a key role in spending decisions in early 2010."

Consumers' assessment of current-da y conditions declined further in December:

• Those claiming business conditions are "bad" increased to 46.6% from 44.5%
• Those claiming conditions are "good" decreased to 7.0% from 8.1%
• Those claiming jobs are "hard to get" decreased to 48.6% from 49.2%
• Those claiming jobs are "plentiful" decreased to 2.9% from 3.1%.

Consumers' short-term outlook improved in December. Those anticipating business conditions will improve over the next six months increased to 21.3% from 19.7%, while those expecting conditions will worsen decreased to 11.9% from 14.6%.

The outlook for the labor market was also more upbeat. The percentage of consumers expecting more jobs to become available in the months ahead increased to 16.2% from 15.8%, while those expecting fewer jobs decreased to 20.7% from 23.1%. The proportion of consumers anticipating an increase in their incomes decreased to 10.3% from 10.9%.

Several other recent future-looking consumer indices also demonstrate hope for a better 2010 on the part of US consumers, reports Marketing Charts. The Conference Board's Leading Economic Index (LEI), which measures economic activity for the next six months, increased 0.9%, from 104 to 104.9, in November 2009. This follows a 0.3% increase in October and 1.2% increase in September, and marks the LEI's eighth straight month of growth following 20 straight months of decline.

The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index (CEI), which measures current economic activity, increased 0.2%, from 99.9 to 100.1, following flat performance in October and a fractional decrease in September. A score of 100 marks the performance level of both the LEI and CEI in 2004.

The Deloitt e Consumer Spending Index, which attempts to track consumer cash flow as an indicator of future consumer spending, rose 8.9% in November 2009, following a 15.7% jump in October and an 11.6% hike in September 2009.

In addition, the American Express Spending & Saving Tracker indicates that in the next 30 days, 32% of consumers will spend more than they did in the last 30 days, and another 33% will spend the same as they did in the last 30 days. A majority of these consumers are spending the same or more due to holiday shopping-related expenses.

To read the Conference Board report, please vi sit here, and for the Marketing Charts summary, go here.

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